Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 8628 LANDED 4:07 AM CT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

WN 8628 · MDW → STL

took off 3:22 AM CT · landed 4:07 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 18h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↑ MDW is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.94 in

STL (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 8628 · MDW → STL

Odds over time