Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 862
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
WN 862 · BWI → CLE
departs 6:15 PM ET · arrives 7:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Wed 9/30
Thu 10/1 14%
Fri 10/2 17%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at CLE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLE?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 9,914 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
CLE (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.