Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 921 LANDED 5:27 PM PT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

WN 921 · AUS → SMF

took off 4:18 PM CT · landed 5:27 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.14 in

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 921 · AUS → SMF

Odds over time