WN 964 · BWI → JAX

took off 8:28 AM ET · expected to land 9:54 AM ET (scheduled 8:06 AM ET → 10:14 AM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JAX?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ BWI is busy at that time

↑ BWI is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JAX (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 964 · BWI → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?