Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 978
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 978 · BWI → ORF
departs 11:00 AM ET · arrives 12:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
BWI is busy at that time
↑
Other factors
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORF (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.