YV 3981 · IAD → SAV

departs 5:52 PM ET · arrives 7:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at SAV more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAV?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at SAV that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SAV (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 3981 · IAD → SAV

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAV?