YV 3986 · ABQ → IAH

departs 2:20 PM MT · arrives 5:40 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ABQ that day

↑ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at IAH that day

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ ABQ usually runs smoothly

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ABQ (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.32 in

IAH (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 3986 · ABQ → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?