Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 4011 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

YV 4011 · MAF → IAH

departs 12:10 PM CT · arrives 1:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This route's recent record

↑ YV's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MAF (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.01 in

IAH (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4011 · MAF → IAH

Odds over time