Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 4012 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

YV 4012 · IAD → LGA

departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 1:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4012 · IAD → LGA

Odds over time