Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 4014 IN THE AIR (OFF 7:36 AM ET, ETA 8:34 AM CT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

YV 4014 · GSP → IAH

took off 7:36 AM ET · expected to land 8:34 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GSP

↓ 7am departures from GSP are usually not late

Weather at each end

GSP (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4014 · GSP → IAH

Odds over time