YV 4023 · IAD → SBN

departs 7:02 PM ET · arrives 8:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBN?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBN

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

SBN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4023 · IAD → SBN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBN?