YV 4026 · IAD → LGA

departs 10:09 PM ET · arrives 11:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility3 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4026 · IAD → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?