YV 4046 · RIC → IAH

departs 4:47 PM ET · arrives 7:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RIC (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4046 · RIC → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?