YV 4053 · SAT → IAH

departs 7:24 PM CT · arrives 8:32 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

IAH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4053 · SAT → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?