YV 4059 · GSP → IAH

departs 5:29 PM ET · arrives 7:07 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GSP

Weather at each end

GSP (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4059 · GSP → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?