YV 6117 · DSM → IAH

took off 3:04 PM CT · expected to land 5:13 PM CT (scheduled 2:59 PM CT → 5:30 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

1% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAH?

LIVE

On time or early
99%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ DSM usually runs smoothly

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DSM (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.68 in

IAH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6117 · DSM → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?