YV 6127 · IAD → SDF

departs 5:46 PM ET · arrives 7:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Arrivals into SDF at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6127 · IAD → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?