Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6180 IN THE AIR (OFF 5:47 AM ET, ETA 6:59 AM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

YV 6180 · IND → IAD

took off 5:47 AM ET · expected to land 6:59 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

4% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from IND are usually not late

Weather at each end

IND (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6180 · IND → IAD

Odds over time