YV 6196 · IAD → ROC

departs 10:20 PM ET · arrives 11:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ROC?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 10pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

ROC (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6196 · IAD → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?