YV 6204 · JAX → IAH

took off 12:02 PM ET · expected to land 12:59 PM CT (scheduled 11:54 AM ET → 1:38 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAH?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at IAH that day

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6204 · JAX → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?