YV 6227 · JAX → IAH

departs 3:42 PM ET · arrives 5:09 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at IAH that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6227 · JAX → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?