Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6245 LANDED 7:49 AM CT, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

YV 6245 · MTY → IAH

took off · landed 7:49 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MTY

↑ YV's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at IAH that day

Weather at each end

MTY (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

IAH (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6245 · MTY → IAH

Odds over time