YV 6281 · IAH → MOB

departs 8:12 PM CT · arrives 9:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at MOB more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MOB?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MOB

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.32 in

MOB (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6281 · IAH → MOB

Odds over time

How late will it get to MOB?