YV 6286 · IAH → ORF

departs 6:19 PM CT · arrives 10:42 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.31 in

ORF (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6286 · IAH → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?