Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6305 LANDED 7:51 AM ET, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

YV 6305 · SDF → IAD

took off 6:42 AM ET · landed 7:51 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This route's recent record

↑ YV's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6305 · SDF → IAD

Odds over time