Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3401 LANDED 11:01 AM ET, ~80 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

YX 3401 · BDL → IAD

took off 10:07 AM ET · landed 11:01 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ BDL is prone to delays

↓ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are usually not late

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

BDL (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3401 · BDL → IAD

Odds over time