Schedule: FAA flight plans.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3418 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

YX 3418 · CHS → IAD

took off 7:55 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 7:55 PM ET → 9:52 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from CHS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

CHS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3418 · CHS → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?