YX 3445 · GSO → EWR

departs 7:06 PM ET · arrives 9:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

GSO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3445 · GSO → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?