YX 3452 · SDF → EWR

departs 1:29 PM ET · arrives 3:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3452 · SDF → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?