YX 3459 · IAD → PWM

departs 10:07 PM ET · arrives 12:05 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PWM?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at PWM that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ PWM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

PWM (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3459 · IAD → PWM

Odds over time

How late will it get to PWM?