YX 3463 · IAD → SYR

departs 10:12 PM ET · arrives 11:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SYR?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SYR (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3463 · IAD → SYR

Odds over time

How late will it get to SYR?