YX 3497 · ECP → ORD

took off 2:14 PM CT · expected to land 4:24 PM CT (scheduled 2:08 PM CT → 4:55 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ECP (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3497 · ECP → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?