Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3528 LANDED 10:34 AM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

YX 3528 · CMH → EWR

took off 9:20 AM ET · landed 10:34 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.01 in

EWR (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3528 · CMH → EWR

Odds over time