Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3541 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

YX 3541 · PIT → IAD

departs 8:15 PM ET · arrives 9:07 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

PIT (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3541 · PIT → IAD

Odds over time