YX 3581 · PIT → IAD

took off 11:45 AM ET · landed 12:21 PM ET (scheduled 10:29 AM ET → 11:57 AM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to IAD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.13 mi forecast at PIT that day

↓ PIT usually runs smoothly

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

PIT (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3581 · PIT → IAD

Odds over time

How late did it get to IAD?