Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3610 LANDED 6:31 PM ET, ~2 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

YX 3610 · IAD → BDL

took off 5:36 PM ET · landed 6:31 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

BDL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3610 · IAD → BDL

Odds over time