Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3615
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
YX 3615 · IAD → BOS
departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 5:24 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 31%
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.