Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3626
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
YX 3626 · EWR → ORF
departs 8:00 AM ET · arrives 9:33 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 13%
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
ORF is prone to delays
↑
EWR is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORF (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.