Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3633 LANDED 11:42 AM ET, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

YX 3633 · EWR → DTW

took off 10:24 AM ET · landed 11:42 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from EWR are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3633 · EWR → DTW

Odds over time