YX 3640 · RIC → ORD

took off 10:48 AM ET · landed 11:33 AM CT (scheduled 10:41 AM ET → 12:04 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ORD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC

Weather at each end

RIC (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3640 · RIC → ORD

Odds over time

How late did it get to ORD?