Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3644
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
YX 3644 · DTW → EWR
departs 7:06 PM ET · arrives 9:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 14%
Sun 10/4 58%
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.04 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.