YX 3646 · IAD → CMH

departs 10:29 PM ET · arrives 11:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CMH?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into CMH at that hour are often late

↑ 10pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

CMH (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3646 · IAD → CMH

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMH?