Schedule: FAA flight plans.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3651 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

YX 3651 · GSP → EWR

took off 7:31 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 6:57 PM ET → 9:17 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

GSP (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3651 · GSP → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?