Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3680 LANDED 10:29 AM ET, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

YX 3680 · ORD → SRQ

took off 7:20 AM CT · landed 10:29 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 12% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into SRQ at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

SRQ (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip4.49 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3680 · ORD → SRQ

Odds over time