Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3692 LANDED 5:50 PM ET, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

YX 3692 · DTW → EWR

took off 4:39 PM ET · landed 5:50 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.04 in

EWR (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3692 · DTW → EWR

Odds over time