Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3704
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
YX 3704 · ORD → RIC
departs 10:35 AM CT · arrives 1:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 8%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at RIC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to RIC?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
10am departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.95 in
RIC (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.