YX 4358 · ORF → LGA

departs 3:29 PM ET · arrives 5:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ ORF is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4358 · ORF → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?