Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4380 LANDED 4:11 PM CT, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

YX 4380 · LGA → BNA

took off 3:23 PM ET · landed 4:11 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4380 · LGA → BNA

Odds over time