Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4394 LANDED 6:50 AM ET, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

YX 4394 · LGA → BOS

took off 6:12 AM ET · landed 6:50 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ Other factors

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4394 · LGA → BOS

Odds over time