Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4427 LANDED 8:37 PM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

YX 4427 · LGA → IND

took off 7:04 PM ET · landed 8:37 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IND (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4427 · LGA → IND

Odds over time